While most of Mumbai was sleeping on Wednesday night, a massive 160,000-ton steel beast quietly nudged its way into the Jawahar Dweep terminal. The Shenlong Suezmax, a Liberia-flagged tanker carrying a cool million barrels of Saudi crude, didn't just bring oil. It brought a massive sigh of relief to the Indian government.
If you've been following the news, you know West Asia is currently a tinderbox. Since the end of February 2026, when the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has turned into a "no-go" zone for almost everyone. Yet, here is a ship that loaded up at Ras Tanura on March 1, sailed right through the eye of the storm, and actually made it to India. Read more on a similar subject: this related article.
It’s not just luck. It's the result of some high-stakes shadow diplomacy that most people are completely missing.
The Strait of Hormuz isn't closed it's just selective
Don't believe the headlines saying the Strait is totally blocked. It’s more like a velvet rope at an exclusive club, and Iran is the bouncer. More analysis by The Washington Post highlights comparable views on this issue.
Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri of the IRGC hasn't been shy about it on social media. He basically said if you don't get Tehran's "okay," you're a target. We saw that play out with the Express Rome and the Mayuree Naree—two ships that reportedly ignored warnings and paid the price.
So how did the Shenlong get through?
- The Captain: Captain Sukshant Singh Sandhu is at the helm. Having an Indian captain on a foreign-flagged vessel carrying oil to an Indian port matters more than the flag it flies.
- The Diplomatic Backchannel: Behind the scenes, S. Jaishankar and Iran’s Abbas Araghchi have been burning the midnight oil. India has successfully positioned itself as a neutral party that needs its energy security protected.
- The Cargo: Iran has signaled that vessels not serving US or Israeli interests are "safe." India, despite its ties with the West, has managed to stay in that "safe" bracket for now.
Why 28 Indian ships are still holding their breath
The Shenlong is the first big success story since the hostilites broke out on February 28, but it’s not the whole story. Right now, there are 28 Indian-flagged vessels still sitting in those volatile waters.
- 24 ships are stuck west of the Strait (inside the Persian Gulf).
- 4 ships are waiting on the east side.
The Shipping Ministry has a 24-hour war room running because they know this "clearance" from Iran is fragile. If one missile goes astray or a drone pilot gets twitchy, those 677 Indian seafarers west of the Strait are in a very tight spot. Honestly, the fact that the Shenlong turned off its AIS (Automatic Identification System) tracking while passing through the narrowest part of the Strait tells you everything you need to know about the "safety" they were promised.
The brutal math of rerouting
You might ask why we don't just sail around Africa. I'll tell you why: it's incredibly expensive and slow.
If Indian tankers have to ditch the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal to go around the Cape of Good Hope, you're looking at adding 15 to 20 days to the trip. That isn't just a delay; it's a massive spike in costs.
- Insurance: War-risk premiums have already jumped from 0.25% to over 0.5%. For a tanker like the Shenlong, that’s an extra $200,000 per voyage.
- Freight: We’re seeing "Emergency Conflict Surcharges" of up to $4,000 per container.
- Oil Prices: Brent crude is already flirting with the $85-90 mark. If the Strait actually closes to everyone, $100+ is a guarantee.
India gets about 65% of its crude through these corridors. We don't have the luxury of "waiting it out."
What happens to that oil now
The Shenlong is currently discharging its 135,335 metric tonnes of crude. It’ll take about 36 hours. From there, it goes straight to the refineries in Mahul, Eastern Mumbai.
This specific shipment is vital for keeping fuel prices stable in India's commercial capital, but it's a drop in the bucket. India needs a steady stream of these tankers to keep the lights on and the cars moving. The arrival of the Shenlong proves the route is technically open for India, but it’s a high-wire act with no safety net.
Keep an eye on the vessel tracking for the Indian-flagged VLCC carrying Iraqi crude that's currently heading toward Paradip. If that one makes it through without a scratch, it'll confirm that India’s "neutrality dividend" is actually holding up in the face of a regional war.
If you're tracking these movements, watch for ships "going dark" (turning off AIS) between the coast of Oman and Iran. That’s the sign they’re entering the high-risk zone. You should also check the daily vessel berthing updates at the Mumbai Port Authority website to see if the scheduled arrivals from Saudi and Iraq are actually hitting their windows or if they're being diverted.
